The 2024 Presidential Election and Congressional Races
The 2024 Presidential Election remains extremely close with the margins measuring in tenths of percentage points with Vice President Harris and former President Trump separated by less than a single point in six of the seven swing states. Arizona, where former President Trump has a 1.4 point edge, is the outlier. A similar phenomenon is present in the congressional races with each party having a 50 percent chance of winning the House, and it appears the Republicans are poised to win the Senate majority, but much remains in the air. Finally, the larger point is that every vote matters this year, even if you live in a state that’s being ignored by the presidential candidates and where the airwaves are free of non-stop campaign ads!
Between 1976 and 2021, over 85 Senate elections and 410 House elections were decided by less than three percent of all votes. Over and over again, a tiny sliver of the American public breaking in one direction or another decides who runs the country. On the presidential level, other than former President Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012, every other election in the 21st century has been decided on a razor’s edge. The most infamous was in 2000, when former President Bush won Florida by just 537 votes. In his 2004 reelection, Bush carried New Mexico by just 5,988 votes. He won Iowa by just over 10,000. In 2016, former President Trump became president because of 77,744 votes cast across three states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which he won by mere tenths of a percentage point. In 2020, President Biden was a beneficiary of some close calls as he flipped Arizona by 10,457 votes, Georgia by 11,779 and Wisconsin by 20,682.
To date, all of the polling this year points towards a race that’s just as close, if not closer, than the last two contests with the House in particular being decided on a razor thin margin thanks to a relatively small number of closely contested districts.
Unified control of both branches of government (executive and legislative) remains possible, and with it, the chance to push through a preferred agenda. Similarly, so does divided control, which raises the prospect of gridlock and will require deal making that’s been elusive in recent years. Those dynamics will shape the 2025 policy landscape as members of Congress set their agenda. Individual issues could become wrapped in larger fights over the budget, spending bills, and the debt ceiling. Stay tuned and enjoy the remainder of the ride as we are less than 20 days until Election Day!