House Timing on Budget Resolution

Speaker Johnson (R-LA) continues to push a very ambitious timeline for enactment of a budget reconciliation package.  Last week, he announced that Congress will pass a budget resolution, the first step that sets topline spending figures and unlocks the special reconciliation process, by the end of February. Per his schedule, the Republicans would conclude negotiations on the content of the reconciliation bill in March, pass it in the House by April 10th, followed by a Senate vote that would deliver the bill to the President for signature by April 20th. During that same period, Congress will have to pass a bill to continue funding the federal government (current funding expires on March 14th), consider a substantial supplemental disaster aid package for California, and perhaps pass an increase to the debt limit. Many, including a number of Republicans, are skeptical that all this can happen in such a short period.

Republican groups have begun circulating options for spending cuts and tax revenue raisers to offset the cost of tax cuts they want to include in a budget reconciliation bill.  Early last week, the House Freedom Caucus, a group of far-right members, produced a short list of possible pay-fors estimated to total more than $540 billion to offset the cost of a first reconciliation bill that would focus on border security and increased defense spending only (leaving tax cuts to be treated in a second reconciliation bill).  Late in the week, someone leaked a 50-page document prepared by Republicans on the House Budget Committee listing a menu of provisions covering policy areas under the jurisdiction of multiple committees that would yield savings estimated to total $5.3 to $5.7 trillion over 10 years. Many of the proposals included in these documents would not garner sufficient Republican support to pass. And the release of these proposals will result in organized opposition by affected groups.